I'm not going to lie, I'm fully expecting to get home from work tomorrow night and see that Nick Diaz isn't in the arena anywhere.
Nick Diaz vs Anderson Silva
Anderson Silva, the frontrunner for the coveted Internet title of "pound for pound best fighter" returns to the Octagon after snapping his leg like a twig over a year ago. He faces Nick Diaz, who has not fought since facing GSP almost 2 years ago and being dumbfounded about That Wrestling Shit for 5 rounds.
Anderson Silva is the greatest striker in MMA history. He's so god damned good that he put the 3 worst consecutive fights I will ever witness in my lifetime - Cote, Leites, & Maia - and still managed to win everyone over by delivering a foot into Belfort's face that is used as a method of execution in smaller South American countries. Diaz is a relentless striker who forgets he is really good at submitting people. He can take a relentless beating and keep pushing forward, and is finally matching up against the only fighter who may be more deadly when it comes to taunting someone into eating an uppercut.
There is one outcome that would bring joy to my cold dead heart. Only one way for this marquee fight to draw to a conclusion that would make me feel alive, rather than something that thoughtlessly exists in this ether. If Diaz goes out there and fires off middle fingers and trash talk until it gets under Silva's skin and lays the former champion out with a barrage of 30 baby punches, I will finally remember what it's like to feel again.
Unfortunately, the only reason to pick Diaz is a whole bunch of maybes. Maybe Silva's chin is deteriorating. Maybe Silva's cardio won't be where it needs to be at his age for a 5 round fight. Maybe he just doesn't have it like he used to. But in reality he's fighting an undersized guy whose game plan is to move towards the best counter striker in UFC history. I know for a fact Silva's leg is 100% healed and I have blurry Instagram videos to prove it. Silva will leg kick him into oblivion, batter him in the clinch, and win a majority decision.
Anderson Silva by unanimous decision even though if you look at his face he's clearly more beat up than me. I thought the point was to fight, not run around. 209.
Tyron Woodley vs Kelvin Gastelum
Gastelum is the winner of TUF 17 (seriously, 17) and the UFC's newest rising phenomenon who could potentially be fighting his way into a title shot. He has the physical gifts of speed and power that God never thought necessary to grant me or my medically embarrassing penis but he's still young and inexperienced. He's very hittable and has a tendency to eat some shots he shouldn't. Eating a shot from Woodley is not a preferable matchup for you if you are Gastelum's face.
Woodley is a very hot and cold fighter. He's yes then he's no. He has a lot of power behind those hamhawks and he's nearly impossible to take down. He struggles with peer pressure from other fighters and also has a tendency to get backed up into the cage.
Kelvin is young, but improves dramatically every fight. Tyron Woodley, while a complete monster when he's on his game, is very beatable. He's a mother fucker to get to the ground but Gastelum's ability to take the back from seemingly any position is ridiculous. If you land with a punch and it doesn't kill him he's going to climb you like a spider monkey and sink in a rear naked choke.
This is the most difficult fight for me, but if Gastelum can keep the pressure up on Woodley, his superior cardio can help him take advantage of Woodley's refusal to adjust in between rounds. As long as he doesn't get knocked into another plane of existence, that is.
Gastelum by unanimous decision
Joe Lauzon vs Al Iaquinta
Tonight is the night of "Holy shit, he's still in the UFC?" and Joe Lauzon should be in the main event. He's fighting against the namesake of a shitty hotel chain with a shot to potentially fight an almost-ranked lightweight on FOX Sports 1 on the line.
Joe Lauzon may only be 30 but he might as well be 73. He's taken an insane amount of abuse in his near-decade of being in the UFC and his chin is none the better for it.
Iaquinta has improved every fight. He's a fighter on the rise while Lauzon is quickly going over the hill on a one way trip to World Series of Fighting. This seems like it should be pretty cut and dry, but every time Lauzon gets counted out he comes back with a thunderous knockout that devastates at least four separate branches on his opponent's family tree. Maybe I'm reverse jinxing it, and by picking La Quinta I'm guaranteeing a J-Lau punch that lands so squarely on Al's face that it flies into the third row. Thanks me later guys.
Iaquinta by TKO in the 2nd round
Thales Leites vs Tim Boetsch
Leites, after being shamed out of the UFC by tonight's main eventer, has put together 4-0 streak of fights in his second run in the company, knocking out my "perennial boring fighter who gets air time anyways because he's always ranked in the top 10" John Fitch Lifetime Award Winner Franky Cars. On the other side of the cage, I did a writeup for Tim Boetsch recently and I still thought he got cut 4 years ago.
Leites used to be one dimensional grappler but developed a striking game between UFC stints. A fighter who used to approach Anderson Silva and then immediately drop to his back like a turtle who couldn't roll back onto his belly now packs powerful punches that he can use to get in close and drag them to the ground and smother like no one's business.
Boetsch is...well he's really nice. He has insane bear strength and massive Christmas ham hands. Unfortunately he's not a very good fighter.
I would love for Boetsch to repeat history and find an insane KO waiting in his back pocket right before he loses, but Leities will grind him into dust. I can't believe he's turned into a fighter people are actually excited to watch. We all still love you, Tim, but the idea of Leites calling out Anderson Silva on this card is way too funny to pass up.
Leites by unanimous decision
Thiago Alves vs Jordan Mein
Alves hasn't been the same fighter since GSP broke his spirit for 5 rounds at the biggest show in UFC history. But he's back from a lengthy layoff. Again. He was going to fight sooner but saw his shadow when he went outside so he had six more weeks of rehab.
Mein, only 25, has lost to the more experienced talent he's faced. He suffered a bad loss to Mike Brown, but made up for it by ending Mike Pyle's life. He is a skilled striker who can turn to his wrestling if he needs it.
This fight really doesn't mean anything in the welterweight division but who cares. These men are going to beat the living shit out of each other and that's really the only reason we're here.
Alves might have frequent layoffs, but he still has monstrous power in those hands. This fight is more of a coinflip than any other on the PPV, but Alves gets the slight edge for me for his experience level. Sure GSP humbled him, but he was still in a title fight. Mein has beaten Mike Pyle and one of the Millers. I wouldn't be surprised if Mein took it, but I'm sticking with Pitbull.
Alves by unanimous decision
That about does it. Be sure to catch the prelims so you can watch Miesha Tate get the shit beat out of her by Sara McMann.
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