Saturday, July 26, 2014

UFC on FOX 12 Picks & Predictions - In a World Where Daron Cruickshank Is Fighting On Prime Time Network Television

UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs Brown
July 26, 2014
SAP Center - San Jose, California

Main Card (FOX) 8 PM EST
  • Robbie Lawler vs Matt Brown
  • Anthony Johnson vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
  • Clay Guida vs Dennis Bermudez
  • Bobby Green vs Josh Thomson
Prelims (FOX) 6 PM EST
  • Daron Cruickshank vs Jorge Masvidal
  • Patrick Cummins vs Kyle Kingsbury
  • Tim Mean vs Hernani Perpetuo
  • Mike De La Torre vs Brian Ortega 
Prelims (Fight Pass) 4:15 PM EST
  • Akbarh Arreola vs Tiago Trator
  • Gilbert Burns vs Andreas Stahl
  • Juliana Lima vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
  • Noad Lahat vs Steven Siler

The best month of MMA we've seen in a long time comes to an end with a night of exciting fighters. And Clay Guida.

Bobby Green vs Josh Thomson

The main card kicks off with a good ole fashioned veteran vs rising star fight. It could serve as a passing of the torch, if the torch in question is being plagued by a Dominick Cruz-esque series of never-ending injuries. 


Thomson excels at fighting a slow and steady pace and grinding out 5 round decisions. Unfortunately, this is a 3 round fight against a young guy who can outwork him and push the pace. Thomson is old, his age is going to catch up to him, and Green will carry on the mantle of kicking Nate Diaz right in the fuckin head. Green by unanimous decision.

Dennis Bermudez vs Clay Guida


Remember being excited to see Clay Guida’s name on a card? Time sure does change. Guida is obviously in the decline of his career and his chin is going with him. He used to be able to get away with eating 40 shots to the chin and hopping up and down like an asshole before getting you to the ground and wet blanketing you, but now even that isn’t a viable strategy. 


Both fighters appear to keep a quick pace and attack nonstop. The difference is, Guida just hops around while Bermudez actually does something with his insane pace. MMA fighters have evolved since Guida’s peak, and Bermudez is no exception. Guida has shown nothing but a steady decline and Bermudez has shown nothing but progress. Bermudez, Bahama, come on pretty mama by unanimous decision.

Anthony Johnson vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira


Rumble Johnson makes weight and Lil Nog makes it to the venue without injuring himself so badly that his trainers couldn’t put Humpty together again. Truly a Christmas in July.
 

I feel like Johnson takes this fight, but it seems like a lot of people have been quick to crown him since his move to light heavyweight and subsequent return to the UFC. So he out-struck Phil Davis. Who the fuck hasn’t? 

It’s not far fetched to imagine Lil Nog shocking the world with some of that patented Underrated Nogeuira Boxing and baiting Rumble to fall into bad habits and spend 2 rounds tentatively looking for that one pump chump KO. 

But with 4 fights in as many years ring rust will be a factor, and 13 years of getting punched in the face in Brazilian gyms is going to catch up to him as Rumble lands a Christmas ham on Lil Nog’s noggin. Johnson by TKO. 

Matt Brown vs Robbie Lawler


Matt Brown took a break from saying female MMA fighters should fight topless and using the word retard before his nationally televised main event to show up overweight. You’re on a fucking FOX Main Event for to earn a shot at the title. Even Rumble Johnson made weight. Fuck's sake. 

I’ve gone through many stages of grief on this matchup. I’ve gone from thinking it’s going to be amazing and can’t possibly be bad to those fights ALWAYS end up disappointing, to no this is going to be the one that lives up to the hype, to but you ALWAYS say that, to fuck it the only way this can end poorly is if someone passes out in the locker room. We miss you, Kevin Randleman. 

Matt Brown is on a tear, but it’s not nearly the same level of competition. Beating Erick Silva isn’t nearly as impressive as Lawler’s 5 round war against Johnny Hendricks. Lawler has evolved into a complete fighter instead of relying on the freakish athleticism he had in his early days. Brown has a bad habit of backing off when he gets hit, leaving Lawler to dictate the pace. If Lawler sets the tone and controls the center of the Octagon, he wins easy.


Remember when Brock Lesnar took a knee right in the diverticulitis? Look for Lawler to do the same to Brown’s liver and top it off with a Piledriver. Lawler by TKO. 


Tell your friends to fuck off, barricade yourself in your compound, and watch this main event. Friends come and go, but two grown men taking years off each other's life is forever. 

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